Gaddafi’s last stand

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/08/21/gaddafis-last-stand-2/

By Sean Lee

Looks like the end might soon be nigh for Gaddafi’s reign in Libya; the Presidential guard has reportedly surrendered and his son has been captured.

The USD is looking reasonably well bid this morning, following on from the recovery which began in late NY trade on Friday after cable traded above 1.66 and USD/JPY below 76.00

A Libyan rebel fighter on the captuyred 27th Bridge, which leads into the centre of Tripoli. Photograph: Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty Images.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/21/gadaffi-fight-blood-rebels-tripoli

GBP/CHF Technical Analysis

GbpChf must be able to sustain above that red daily trendline. Otherwise next week it will go down.

S&P faces inquiry over US downgrade

Regulators are examining the models used by Standard & Poor's after the US government accused the ratings agency of a $2 trillion (£1.2 trillion) error when it downgraded America. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8699245/SandP-faces-inquiry-over-US-downgrade.html#.TkZStZHFU5w.facebook

By Richard Blackden

The inquiry is reported to be part of a broader look at McGraw-Hill, S&P's parent company, by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

S&P's decision to strip the US of its AAA rating late on the evening of August 5 prompted a furious exchange between the US Treasury and the agency.

The Treasury, which had been sent S&P's press release on the afternoon of the 5th before it was due to be released later that day, accused analysts at S&P of a "basic math error" that led to the downgrade.

S&P said that the $2 trillion difference in future projections for the deficit was because it and the Treasury were using figures from the Congressional Budget Office to calculate the trajectory for the shortfall over different time frames.

The agency eventually went ahead and cut the US long-term credit rating to AA+ for the first time in its history. Moody's and Fitch, the rival rating agencies, have kept it at AAA.

The SEC is also said to be looking at who knew about the decision to cut the rating before it was made public amid speculation that it was leaked earlier in the day.

A spokesman for S&P said the company's policies "prohibit analysts or rating-committee members from trading and holding securities or options of the companies or governments they rate".

Although many investors had expected S&P to cut its rating, the decision contributed to a second week of volatile trading in stock markets across the world. It also led to speculation that other countries could follow.

GBP/CHF Monthly Fibonacci Analysis

GBP/CHF pair monthly time frame. A rally down from June 2007 to august 2011. Finally reaches 161.8 fibonacci.

S&P Strips U.S. of Top Credit Rating

http://online.wsj.com
S&P removed for the first time the triple-A rating the U.S. has held for 70 years, saying the budget deal recently brokered in Washington didn't do enough to address the gloomy long-term picture for America's finances.

August 8, 2011 Forex signal CHF/JPY (day trading)

Sell
CHF/JPY
SHORT : 103.2
STOP : 104.5
TP1 : 101.17
TP2 : 100.86

Dollar to drop on S&P move; saf-haven demand seen

www.reuters.com
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar may weaken and Treasury yields rise when Asian markets reopen on Monday, though any selling in response to ratings agency S&P's downgrade of the United States

Oasis Forex Strategy by Lukpayat

I'm Mizee, Full time trader from kota damansara. Been using this methods for almost a year and manage to get 1000-2000 pips a week. The concept based on SELF FULLFILLING PROPHECY and currency strength. We can either trade in "basket of currency", single pair, or multiple pairs.
This is a summarized version for the system in english as per requested by some foreign friends.

I had found this idea of buying currency instead of pair. Previously, i used to trade EURUSD ONLY. as per recomended by some gurus in Fx. But then, I realized that trading single pair is riskier than trading multiple pair. So, i decided to create a method that could enable us to trade all pairs that is going on same direction at any point of time. - correlation trading.

Why?
Because we are selling and buying currencies. we are not selling & buying PAIR. We buy USD, we sell EUR. We just need to know what is focus currency at any point of time, if the majority of the world are selling USD, we just follow them - SELL. Meaning, we are buying other currencies to dispose USD. there are 7 major pairs bearing USD as quote or base that we can trade together. look at the bigger picture. not only one pair.

But then, how do we analyse entry and exit? all 7 pairs? NOPE.. Now we have the concept of "dominant pair". Some currency pairs are consist of two very liquid currencies. Example: GBPJPY. Both GBP and JPY are dominant currency and a product of USDJPY & GBPUSD. Also EURJPY. These GJ, GU and EJ are lebelled as "anchors" in my system as i used them as a reference when i trade basket currency.

For this system, it is very simple, understand the price action, see the number that indicates the strength index, then get ready to OP.

Traders must have strong basic and understanding about Support and Resistance and how price behaves around it. this is the heart of the system. And we have oasis currency meter to confirm the trend. I would consider this method as naked since we do not use indicators except for the candlestick itself. While currency meter is also an indicator, it is unique since it is not affected by Timeframe we chose. It is acting like a compass or map to show which currency to trade, when to trade, when not to trade and when to exit trade.

Lets talk about currency strength index. This numerical values are derived from calculating the amount of disposition of certain currency throughout the day. So, when you hear good news in US economy, it will be translated into buying USD currency. Traders and big player will start buying USDCHF, USDJPY, USDCAD and selling EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD. If we focus on USD, we shall notice USD will become stronger as many are buying USD.

As a result, the supply will become lesser and the value of usd will increase. Then we shall see the OASIS currency meter reading for USD increasing. So, when USD strong, we buy USD currency. From the meter, we can identify which currency is good to buy or to dispose. So, from USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD, NZD

Let me summarize the rules.
Key to this system is Price action, S&R, HI-LO Range, and Currency Strength.

1. The gap of the currency strength between the weak and the strong one MUST be more than 3. Meaning that the Strong - Weak = 3. Example GBP is strong, reading meter shows 7, usd is weak, reading meter is 3. We have a GAP of 4. This means we can trade GBPUSD as BUY.
2. The HI-LO on that day must not exceed the average daily range of that particular pair. If the Average Range for gbpjpy is 250pips a day for the last 100days, that means, when the current HI-LO for today is already exceeding 250pips, do not trade. If it shows yen is strong, and gbp is weak, DO NOT SELL GBPJPY anymore. No new entry after the daily range is exceeded.
3. Prepare a Support Resistance on the pair we want to trade. There are plenty of auto SnR or even auto Fibonacci out there that you can download. Do a set of fibo retracement and expansion on Daily and Weekly as well as Monthly. Then OP when second candle is open after the first one close beyond the zone of SnR. You may refer to the ebook for picture. The complete set of instruction including the EA to control profit is available in oasis forum for free.
   

Ok, now, to trade currency basket, we need to identify the most dominant pair among the currency pair. For YEN pairs, normally the dominant pair is either EURJPY or GBPJPY. If we were to trade all yen pair, when yen is strong.
We want to evaluate only the most dominant pair as trigger. No need to look at all 7 pairs.
how do you identify the most dominat pair for that day? We need to use the IA. or in other words - indicator account. More details on this subject available here.

see picture below:
Once you identify that it is the most dominant pair, just do analysis on this pair and OP using script provided here.

how to read the dashboard?

This Statistic and summary indicator is to simplify my job to make conclusion which was based on a few charts.
Originally, I will refer to these 3 pair before i actually OP base on the 3 criterias:

1. Strength >/= 3 (best is 4)
2. Candle on TF 5 or 15 break the SnR, close above and new candle formed on the same direction. for a solid certainty entry, I would use M15, but must refer to H1 and above to check whether the SnR is Major or Minor. What is the difference between Major and Minor? The pivot is considered as major as it calculated based on Hi-LO and Average Price Daily. So the SnR is quite robust. While any SnR drawn from H1 TF below, is considered fragile as it is minor.
3. The price must be within Daily Average Range. For this particular item, we can use the T S R Range calculator modified, posted somewhere in this thread.
   

BEST TIME TO TRADE
Session Open - Asian Session Japan, EUR Session, US Session.

RISK MANAGEMENT
CUT LOSS when price break the SnR in your opposite direction.
SET YOU OWN PERSONAL DRAWDOWN LIMIT. Drawdown can be very dangerous is you do not use proper money management. I set at 10% drawdown from the equity. More than 10%, i will close the trade.

READING THE DASHBOARD
Normally I will be flipping through 3 charts to see where is the CS location. From the SnR as well as direction on multiTF. And also to check the range of the dominant pair. I found it tedious especially when trying to catch a move after news or session open.
This dashboard is not an indicator to give signal on Buy or Sell. It just summarize the information and statistic needed for us to make decision.

in this dash board, there are 4 segments:
1. Candle location in pips value from SnR.
2. price action (direction) on TF15 and TFH1
3. Summary on strength difference (range), spread, Hi-lo and also average range for last 5 days
4. the currency strength meter.

How do we use this?
No 1 is to see where the GJ, GU and EJ are located from the SnR. this is important for us to decide whether we want to trade both USD and Yen or just USD or YEN.

No 2 is to check the tradable pairs whether they are running on the same direction after the "pacemaker" breaking thru the resistance or support. if they are all aligned, we can trade both USD and Yen.

No 3 is to see whether the current moment is suitable for OP. the range is auto calculated and we can set the difference as 4 or 3. i would recomend 3 so that we are not too late as market nowadays is ranging. from this statistic, we can also trade manually based on those pairs which only have extreme conditions (weak versus strong). and also the range comparison is displayed here. hi-lo is the current day movement of the pair, and the dailyAve is the last 5 days range.

For this range, condition of this system = todays hi-lo must be <!--= average range. in this SS, lets take previous day as example since daily range is only 122 and still within range, and not a good example since it was friday. notice tak the 100days average range is 184 pips? the hi-lo on thursday is 175.. very close to the maximum average daily range.. at this point, even though the usd is still weak compared to GBP, it is no longer safe to buy. as it almost out of range. once the price hit resistance, very likely it will bounce back due to self-fulling prophecy on both resistance and range. i do not pay attention on the risk and the pips down or pips up statistic. i only use the range statistics. , IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHEN NOT TO TRADE RATHER THAN WHEN TO TRADE.
Caution: meter is inaccurate in the morning when the market is just open. if your broker starts market at 8am for GMT +8 area like malaysia, wait for at least half hour before make decision based on oasis meter. let the market find the direction and then only we follow.

P/S: IBFX wont work since the symbols has "m: at the back of the currency pair. same goes to fxopen micro.

Hope this helps : LUKPAYAT or Brother Mizee
http://www.oasiswealthbuilders.com/